What is an expected move in options trading?

The expected move is the amount a stock is predicted to move after an earnings announcement, derived from the at-the-money straddle price. It represents the market's consensus forecast for the magnitude of the post-earnings price change.

What is implied volatility (IV) rank?

IV rank measures how the current implied volatility compares to its range over the past year. A high IV rank means options are relatively expensive, which is common before earnings announcements.

How do I use an earnings calendar for options trading?

An earnings calendar helps options traders identify upcoming earnings dates, expected moves, and implied volatility levels. Traders use this data to plan straddles, strangles, iron condors, and other earnings-related strategies.

SpaceX (SPCX) Earnings Preview: A ~$12.65 Expected Move Into a Lockup Week

Get ready for a big week. SpaceX reports its third quarter after the close on Tuesday, October 20, with the call at 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET, streamed live on X.¹ It's only the second report since the June IPO, it could be the company's first profitable quarter as a public company, and a lockup expires two days later.

Here's my take: SpaceX is becoming an AI infrastructure company. The market is pricing today's AI business, not tomorrow's. And one number in the options market tells me traders are far more relaxed this time than they were last quarter, right before the stock dropped 13.6% in a single day.²

Updated October 19: the October 23 weekly options chain shows an expected move of about ±$12.65 (±8.6%), with SPCX around $147.17. The chain's exact displayed move is ±$12.639.¹³

The bigger story is the full stack: the neocloud business, Grok models, Cursor and Grok Bot. That's the AI thesis behind my earnings trade.

So what is the options market pricing now, and where do I think SPCX finds support if this week gets messy?

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